- Using real data and statistical tools, the new academic study by UIB reveals how anticipation, price, and cancellation policies influence customer decisions.
- Policies matter (more flexibility, more risk), as do booking timing, strategies to get better prices, and factors such as nationality, type of trip, season, and sales channel.
- The scientific article, authored by Bartolomé Deyá, Vicente Ramos, Veronica Leoni, and Juan Luis Nicolau, has just been published in the specialized journal Tourism Management.
- This is the third time the tech company and the University of the Balearic Islands have collaborated on scientific outreach for the tourism industry.
Researchers from the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB) analyze in an innovative study the causes and timing of hotel reservation cancellations—a phenomenon that directly impacts profitability and planning in the tourism sector. The research, published in Tourism Management, was made possible thanks to the strategic collaboration with Dingus, which provided a unique database of more than two million reservations managed between 2021 and 2024 on the island of Mallorca.
The paper combines four theoretical frameworks (planned behavior, transaction costs, prospect theory, and strategic decision-making) with advanced statistical models to explain why and when reservations are canceled. These are the most relevant findings:
- Cancellation policies are decisive: non-refundable bookings are 82% less likely to be canceled, while partially refundable ones triple the risk.
- Booking timing matters: there is an inverted U-shaped relationship, with higher risk for bookings made with intermediate anticipation.
- Strategic behavior detected: customers cancel and rebook to take advantage of price drops.
- Factors such as nationality, group composition, season, and sales channel (OTAs vs. direct booking) influence cancellation probability.
Implications for the sector
The results offer practical recommendations for hotels:
- Adjust cancellation policies according to channel, season, and segment.
- Encourage direct bookings to reduce risks.
- Monitor prices and strategic behavior to optimize revenue management.
The key role of DingusThanks to data on more than two million reservations managed by Dingus in Mallorca between 2021 and 2024, the research team accessed a massive and representative database of the Balearic market, enabling a shift from experimental studies to analysis based on real behavior. The CIO of the strategic tech partner for hotels, Emilio Torrens, states: “This study demonstrates how technology and big data are essential to understand and anticipate customer behavior. From a business perspective, it reinforces our commitment to innovation and data intelligence applied to hotel management.”
“In the academic field,” recalls Jaume Monserrat, CEO of Dingus, “this is the third time we have collaborated with researchers from the Faculty of Tourism at UIB, which is especially rewarding for the entire team. The two previous studies were ‘Irresistible offers beyond the shopping Mall: Effects of Black Friday on tourism’, published in Current Issues in Tourism, on how limited-time discount campaigns influence booking patterns, and ‘Consumption shift caused by COVID: A longitudinal analysis of hotel booking patterns’, published in International Journal of Hospitality Management, analyzing the pandemic’s impact on guest booking behavior.”
Dingus thanks Bartolomé Deyá, Vicente Ramos, Veronica Leoni, and Juan Luis Nicolau for their trust in the data provided to help explain why and when hotel reservations are canceled.
Cristina Torres. Dircom Dingus
